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TECHNOLOGY

By Eleni Stamoulakatou

August 23, 2024 at 00:45a.m. GR | August 22, 2024 at 5:45p.m. ET

Revised: N/A

Industries across the board, are currently using or exploring the possibility of using generative AI to revolutionize their operations. AI in aviation is proven to help with predictive maintenance, autopilot systems, route optimization, air traffic management, and cockpit support. These are some indicative examples of the mainstream application of AI that can help boost efficiency, safety, and decision-making.

 

Artificial Intelligence In Aviation Market Size

AI in the aviation market globally was estimated at US$ 653.74 million in 2021 and is projected to surpass approximately US$ 9,985.86 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 35.38% over the forecast period 2022 to 2030. 

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Source: Precedence Research

On A Path With Purpose

However, the use of AI in the aviation market is not limited to its use in operational management but has become a means to end for what has already climbed at the top of the corporate agenda; a higher purpose that is the need to decrease the industry’s environmental footprint. In this effort, aviation is taking center stage.

 

Spanning from manufacturing to customer service, C-level executives in the aviation sector, have already achieved a deeper understanding of the substantial potential and value that can result from the use of artificial intelligence in leading operational intelligence. What lies ahead in terms of a strategic approach, is for the gained insights to translate to tangible actions on the way to adopting a more sustainable modus operandi.

 

Aviation Fuel Market Size

Generative AI in the aviation fuel market globally was estimated at USD$ 252.39 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach approximately USD$ 935.67 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 14% over the forecast period 2023 to 2032. 

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Source: Precedence Research

But before one delves into the ‘how’ of things, it is essential to understand that when we are talking about sustainability and the aviation industry, we are not merely using it as some catchy word in the agenda meant to help target an eco-conscious demographic. Perhaps this may have once been the case, yet following the reality of the climate change and its impact on the quality of the human condition, the need for businesses to go greener has shifted from what once was a ‘nice to consider for marketing purposes’ to a ‘must do asap’.  

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Aviation Acknowledging Its Contribution To Climate Change

Emissions from aviation are a major contributor to climate change. Aircrafts burn fossil fuel which releases CO2 emissions but also has strong warming non-CO2 effects due to nitrogen oxides (NOx), vapour trails and cloud formation triggered by the altitude at which aircraft operate. Aviation accounts for 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions, but it has contributed around 4% to global warming to date. Flying is one of the most carbon-intensive activities.

 

The Urgent Need For A Shift To Green Fuel

Per WEF’s input on this topic, leading businesses acknowledge their important role in reducing air pollution, alongside greenhouse gas emissions, as business activity has been proven to contribute significantly to air pollution globally. Some key findings include that:

 

  • Aviation accounts for 2% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and AI will be vital in driving sustainable innovation across the industry.

  • AI-driven innovations can enhance fuel efficiency and reduce aviation's ecological footprint, but we must act fast to reach net-zero targets. 

 

Per WEF’s latest report, some key strategic actions will need to be taken by stakeholders across the board in the aviation industry, to help move towards 10% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030 and subsequent sector decarbonization by 2050. Indicatively, what is a common denominator for the US, Europe and the Middle East, is the need to scaling SAF.

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About SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel)

  • What is SAF? - Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a jet fuel (Jet-A/A1). Unlike traditional jet fuel that fully derives from fossil resources, contemporary SAF is a blend of conventional fossil fuel and synthetic components made from a range of renewable “feedstock”.  ASTM International, a global standards and testing body, has approved eight technical pathways for producing SAF. Each pathway has its own set of requirements based on different feedstocks and conversion processes. Here are just three of the most common pathways: 

    • HEFA (Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids): The HEFA process refines vegetable oils, waste oils, or fats into SAF through hydrotreating and hydro-processing. 

    • Alcohol to Jet: Alcohol to Jet (AtJ) converts alcohols such as ethanol and iso-butanol into SAF by removing the oxygen and linking the molecules together. 

    • eFuels: SAF can be produced using green hydrogen, capturing carbon dioxide, and using renewable electricity to create synthetic fuels. This type of SAF is sometimes referred to as eFuel or Power-to-Liquid (PtL).​

  • How does SAF reduce the aviation industry's carbon footprint?

    • Air transport represents approximately 2-3% of global human-induced GHG emissions. SAF is one of the means the aviation industry is using to reduce that carbon footprint. 

    • On average, SAF can reduce CO2 emissions by 80% compared to traditional jet fuel. This substantial reduction is crucial to the industry’s progress towards decarbonization.

    • The key to SAF's impact lies in its life cycle. When burned, SAF still produces emissions similar to those emitted by fossil fuels. But unlike conventional jet fuels, which take fossil resources out of the ground and release previously stored carbon into the atmosphere, SAF primarily uses carbon that is part of the current carbon cycle in various feedstocks. This means that the CO2 emitted during an aircraft's flight is re-absorbed by the biomass used in SAF production.

Source: IATA

​Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size

The sustainable aviation fuel market market globally was valued at USD$ 616.91 million in 2023 and is projected to reach approximately USD$ 14,842.13 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 42.39% from 2023 to 2032. 

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Source: Precedence Research

How Can Generative AI Help with SAF 

Generative artificial intelligence solutions address the obstacles facing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) development through production optimization as it can help accelerate SAF development by optimizing production processes. The aim is to cut air travel emissions down to nothing by making fuel from renewable resources, waste feedstocks, and organic materials. By analyzing vast datasets, AI can help point out areas for efficiency improvement, leading to the decrease of production costs and improved economic solutions. AI-driven predictive models can help identify the suitable feedstocks and refine conversion processes. By considering factors such as climate data, crop yields and waste availability, AI can help identify sustainable aviation fuel pathways that can also be economically appealing and viable in the long term.

 

Decisions Made To Facilitate and Foster The Need For A Shift To SAF

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced its projection to triple its Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) production in 2024 to 1.9 billion liters (1.5 million tons) are on track. This would account for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel need in 2024. To accelerate SAF use, there are several policy measures that governments could take.

''SAF will provide about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. So the expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging. We still have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is starting to come into focus […] the interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient. Governments have set clear expectations for aviation to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to be net zero carbon emissions by 2050. They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities.”

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General

A Policy Framework Aimed At Advancing SAF in EU and US

In October 2021, airlines globally proceeded to a step to help achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is required in vast quantities to help decarbonize the aviation industry. In order for this to be feasible, a policy framework was needed to facilitate the transition to a new eco-friendly fuel. Both the EU and the US are committed to this purpose thus have already designed a set of policy measures needed to be implemented to enable and expedite the shift to a greener fuel.

 

Policies that will help advance SAF in Europe

  • ReFuelEU Aviation - ‘Fit for 55’ - In July 2021, the European Commission published a package of legislative proposals branded “Fit for 55”. One component of the package is the ReFuelEU proposal which aims to boost production and uptake of SAF. The proposal includes a blending mandate imposed on aviation fuel suppliers, with the obligation for the suppliers to ensure that all aviation fuel supplied to aircraft operators at European Union (EU) airports contains a minimum share of SAF, including a minimum share of synthetic fuel. The mandate is expected to start in 2025 with a minimum volume of SAF at 2%, increasing in five-year intervals to ultimately reach a minimum volume of 63% in 2050, of which 28% would consist of synthetic aviation fuels. All airlines departing from EU airports will be obliged to uplift jet fuel prior to departure. The amount of jet fuel uplifted must correspond to the volume of jet fuel necessary to operate the planned flight, regardless of the destination. The yearly quantity of aviation fuel uplifted by a given aircraft operator at a given EU airport shall be at least 90% of the yearly aviation fuel required. The legislative proposal also associates with reporting obligations of aircraft operators to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency.

 

Policies that will help advance SAF in United States

  • California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (CA-LCFS) - The CA-LCFS is designed to reduce GHG emissions in the transportation sector. The policy framework applies a system carbon intensity reduction to put a value on carbon reduction generated from renewable fuels. The greenhouse gas benefits of SAF are quantified through life cycle assessment modelling that calculates the avoided emissions compared with conventional jet fuel. These credits can incentivise SAF production as they can then be sold to other obligated parties under the CALCFS.

  • The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard – The RFS was created by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and later updated through the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. This regulation is focused on renewable fuel for ground transportation, requiring a minimum amount of renewable fuel on an annual basis, ramping up over time. The RFS offers SAF an “opt-in” approach, allowing SAF to generate compliance units (Renewable Identification Numbers “RINs”) without aviation fuel generating compliance obligations.

  • The U.S. Sustainable Skies Act - The U.S. Congress introduced the Sustainable Skies Act in May 2021, aiming to boost incentives to use SAF. The credit started at 1.50USD per gallon for blenders that supply SAF with a demonstrated 50% or greater lifecycle GHG savings and rewards higher GHG achievement up to the maximum of 2USD per gallon. The legislation requires eligible SAF to utilize the full set of ICAO sustainability criteria as one of the safeguard provisions to ensure its environmental integrity. A complimentary proposal also includes a 1 Billion USD grant over five years to expand the number of SAF producing facilities in the U.S.

 

Corporate Responsibility Calls For Introspection - Use Cases for Gen AI In The Aviation Sector For SAF

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  • Airbus – is making an investing in LanzaJet, a leading sustainable fuels technology company and producer. This decision is in line with the company’s vision to become a proponent of a shift towards sustainable aviation fuels. All Airbus aircraft are capable of flying on a maximum 50% blend of SAF and conventional fuel. However, by 2030, all our aircraft and helicopters will be capable of flying with up to 100% SAF.

“Sustainable aviation fuels are one of the most important levers available to decarbonise aviation, but their production is still limited. Our partnership with LanzaJet demonstrates Airbus' commitment to work with leading energy technology suppliers to explore innovative production pathways and scale SAF [...] this important partnership with LanzaJet underlines the importance of new technologies and cross-sector collaboration to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050.”

Julie Kitcher, Chief Sustainability Officer, Airbus 

  • Boeing - signed an agreement to purchase 7.5 million gallons of blended SAF from Neste in 2024 to support its U.S. Commercial Airplanes business operations. The volume of Neste’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is part of Boeing’s total purchase of 9.4 million gallons of blended SAF, representing Boeing’s largest annual SAF purchase to date (60% more than in 2023). Additionally, Boeing has proceeded to an investment with Wagner refinery as part of its strategy to support the development of local SAF supply and expand global access to SAF.

“As our focus remains on safety and quality, sustainability continues to be a priority. Sustainable aviation fuel is essential to decarbonize aviation. About 20% of our fuel usage is a SAF blend, and we continue to increase our use of this fuel to encourage growth in the SAF industry. We are also working to make SAF more available and affordable to our commercial airline customers through collaboration, investment, research and policy development.”

Ryan Faucett, Vice President of Environmental Sustainability, Boeing

The potential of SAF in mitigating emissions and reducing commercial and production costs has been proven. The aviation industry has made a commitment to continue its decarbonization efforts, and at the heart of this effort, lies the promise of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The first big step of introspection and realizing the weight of the industry's environmental footprint has been made. Next comes a series of implementation steps, some of which have already been taken. 

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The benefits of generative AI for SAF have gone from a proof of concept to production, with this compelling new alternative - vs that of conventional jet fuel - leading the way to tangible results. The challenges and stakes are now higher than ever before, as the impact does pertain solely to the financial or commercial facet of the industry and its operations, but the quality and preservation of the planet for all human kind. 

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